The 2023 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook analyses the impact of increased macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty on sovereign borrowing needs and borrowing conditions. The key findings include:

• Sovereign borrowing needs are expected to increase in 2023 as many OECD countries seek to cushion households and businesses from rising prices.
• Borrowing and debt levels remain substantially elevated against pre-pandemic levels. In 2022 borrowing needs were 43% above the 2011-2019 average, with total outstanding debt at ten percentage points of GDP above the average over that same period. Almost half of OECD marketable debt –some USD 23 trillion– will fall due over the next three years.
• Borrowing costs have more than doubled for OECD sovereigns since 2021, and may rise further in the near term. As a result, countries face elevated refinancing risk.
• Beyond the OECD countries, Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) also face historically high levels of outstanding debt and a similarly challenging market environment, further exacerbated by systemic dynamics common in some EME sovereign debt markets.

OECD, May 2023 - Read the Publication, Press Release, or Watch the Launch Press Conference